Sunday, 17 August 2014

Which Explanation for Creation is Best?

No one knows how our universe came to be. Although there are many possible explanations, currently there is just not enough information to determine which one (if any) is true. They could all be wrong!

But it is possible to assess which are currently the best explanations in terms of quality of explanation. To  assess the quality of an explanation requires each explanation to be assessed against a set of criteria.  And this is what I'm attempting to do here.


First, here is a list of possible explanations


And here is a list of criteria which can be used to assess the quality of an explanation.

Joining these together we get this chart, which shows how each explanation scores against each criterion...

EXPLANATION
A1
A2
A3
A4
B1
B2
B3
B4
C1
C2
C3
C4
D1
D2
D3
TOT
Black hole Model
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
14
Cyclic Model
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
8
Conformal Cycle
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
10
Quantum Fluctuation
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
10
M-Theory
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
13
Steady State
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
8
Protouniverse
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
7
Holographic Universe
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
9
Created (physical)
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
7
Created (simulated)
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
7
Supernatural
Boshongo
Y
Y
2
Ancient Greece
Y
Y
Y
Y
4
Abrahamic
Y
Y
Y
3
Scandinavian
Y
Y
Y
3
Native American
Y
Y
Y
3
Mayan
Y
Y
Y
3
Australian Aborigine
Y
Y
Y
3


The explanation that ticks the most boxes is The Black Hole model with M-Theory very close behind. Next comes the Conformal Cycle and Quantum Fluctuation hypotheses. All four should be considered as high quality hypotheses.

IMPORTANT NOTE: This does not mean that any specific hypothesis is true. This exercise is simply measuring the quality of the explanation. Although several hypotheses have the attribute that makes them testable (i.e. falsifiable), they have yet to be tested.  To repeat: We don't know which of these explanations is correct, if any.

The supernatural explanations come a long way behind natural explanations, mainly because they fail to tick the boxes in the Empirical and Logical categories.




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