Thursday 26 February 2015

The Placebo Effect

Meanwhile... in a large tent in the Bible Belt of the American south...


You say you are blind, brother?

Yes sir, Since I was a baby

Let me lay my hands on you brother

Oh praise be!

I place my hands on you and I say... "Leave this man's body infirmity! Leave it sickness! By the power invested in these hands I say... Heal! Heal!

I can... I can see! I can see!

Tell them brother! Testify! 

I can see! Oh praise the Lord!

Yes! Oh praise... what did you say?

The Lord Jesus Christ! Praise Him I can see!

Praise Jesus? What? Er... Oh I see the mistake now brother. You're in the control group.

The... the control group?

Yeah this is the placebo.

The placebo? But my faith has healed my blindness!

Yep. That's the placebo alright. Hmmm this is going to skew our findings.

But... but if you're a faith healer and faith has cured my blindness, how can it be a placebo?

Why I'm an atheist

You mean I put my faith in a faith healer with no faith? My God!

Yes He is.

Having my sight restored for all the wrong reasons has shaken my faith

Well, as it says in the good book...

Hey! You can't quote the Bible at me

No I mean The Selfish Gene by Richard Dawkins

Oh I heard that it is a good book

Yes it is a good book. But anyway... you still believe

I'm not sure I do

Ah now that may have ramifications for the efficacy of the cure. 

My sight is fading! The darkness is coming!

Ah now I was worried that might happen. Well I think we'd better double the strength of the placebo. Oh mighty Lord Jeeessusss.... Come and heal the eyes of this begotten son. I command thee to heal him and do some other stuff I can't think of right now...





By Phil Whelans and Richard Glover,  also known as "The Pros from Dover."  (Radio 4, June 2010)














Tuesday 24 February 2015

Quotations

A random selection...


You can safely assume that you've created God in your own image when it turns out that God hates all the same people you do.
- Anne Lamott

The pleasures arising from thinking and learning will make us think and learn all the more.  
- Aristotle

Never ascribe to malice that which can be adequately explained by ignorance. 
- Oscar Wilde

I can indeed hardly see how anyone ought to wish Christianity to be true; for if so the plain language of the text seems to show that the men who do not believe, and this would include my Father, Brother and almost all my best friends, will be everlastingly punished.  And this is a damnable doctrine.
- Charles Darwin

I do not feel obliged to believe that the same God who has endowed us with sense, reason, and intellect has intended us to forgo their use.
- Galileo Galilei

Faith, n. Belief without evidence in what is told by one who speaks without knowledge, of things without parallel.
- Ambrose Bierce

A wise man is superior to any insults which can be put upon him, and the best reply to unseemly behaviour is patience and moderation.
- Moliere

The World is divided into armed camps ready to commit genocide just because we can't agree on whose fairy tales to believe. In the end, Religion will kill us all.
- Ed Krebs

Yes, reason has been a part of organized religion, ever since two nudists took dietary advice from a talking snake.
- Jon Stewart

The most appealing, intuitive argument for atheism is the mind blowing stupidity of religious fundamentalists.
- Ginger Yellow

Properly read, the Bible is the most potent force for atheism ever conceived
- Isaac Asimov

I contend that we are both atheists. I just believe in one fewer god than you do. When you understand why you dismiss all the other possible gods, you will understand why I dismiss yours.
- Stephen F. Roberts

One of the great tragedies of mankind is that morality has been hijacked by religion.
- Arthur C. Clarke

Religion. It has given people hope in a world torn apart by religion.
- Jon Stewart

When religion is weak, it asks ‘Why can’t we just agree to disagree?’ When religion is strong, it slaughters all opposition.
- @CrispySea

There once was a time when all people believed in God and the church ruled. This time was called the Dark Ages.
-Richard Lederer

The key to praying is talking to yourself and pretending someone intelligent is listening.
Craig Smith

Where knowledge ends, religion begins.
- Benjamin Disraeli

The study of theology, as it stands in Christian churches, is the study of nothing; it is founded on nothing; it rests on no principles; it proceeds by no authorities; it has no data; it can demonstrate nothing; and it admits of no conclusion.  
- Thomas Paine

No man ever believes that the Bible means what it says; he is always convinced that it says what he means.
- George Bernard Shaw

That pleasure which is at once the most pure, the most elevating and the most intense, is derived, I maintain, from the contemplation of the beautiful.
- Edgar Allan Poe

Reinterpretation and ridicule crow-barred Christianity open. Ask enough tough questions and faith is inevitably pushed farther and farther back into the misty realm of metaphor – where it is less likely to inspire people to kill and die for it.
- Johann Hari

The enemy for the fanatic is pleasure, which makes it extremely important to continue to indulge in pleasure. Dance madly. That is how you get rid of terrorism.
-  Salman Rushdie

An excuse is worse and more terrible than a lie, for an excuse is a lie guarded.
— Pope John Paul II






Thursday 19 February 2015

Supernatural Belief is Natural

A summary of a discussion on the Supernatural from BBC's "Infinite Monkey Cage"


75% of people believe in the supernatural.  What is it about human beings that makes the majority require a belief in the supernatural? It's part and parcel of our make up. There is an inclination in all of us to interpret events in the world, and sometimes the explanations resonate with belief in spirits, ghosts and gods which are not viable scientifically.

The first historically recorded written ghost stories were in 600AD in Pope Gregory’s dialogs, and this was the first time that the church recognised such stories as something useful to explain to people how to behave.  After the reformation when the catholic church lost some power, the notion of a ghost story became a secular idea as a way to cope with tragedy and a way to frame the terrible things that happened in our lives, so then ghost stories were not just tied to the church. 

1 in 4 people say they have experienced a ghost-like phenomenon. The most common is the incubus – demonic figures that appear mainly at night.  They different forms depending on the individual's context of belief e.g. aliens appear for people who believe in alien abduction. Incubus type manifestations appears in nearly every culture over time, and they can be explained by psychology – as we dream we become paralysed (we would injure ourselves if we acted out what we were dreaming). As we drift from dream state to waking state, some of the bizarre imagery comes across, as does the feeling of paralysis and so to make sense of it we combine those two ideas. Some people are terrified by these experiences, but once the psychology is explained, it is no longer scary. 

Similarly, hearing voices has been assumed to be the voice of gods, spirits, or the dead, or some other supernatural entity that may be trying to possess us or influence us.  But in fact it is just our normal internal dialog produced by our brains for all sorts of psychological reasons. 

People who are inclined towards supernatural notions are more likely to see structures and patterns in random noise. The evolutionary explanation is that people are pre-disposed to assume the worst, and this is a good thing (e.g. it's safer to assume a predator is there than to assume it isn't) so generally it’s advantageous to assume there is something there rather than ignore it.

Why do many people enjoy being scared, enjoy horror stories? Because the experience is life affirming, but also we know it's safe. In the same way that a roller coaster is scary and people enjoy it, because they essentially know they are safe. A supernatural explanation is often favoured over a rational explanation purely because of a desire to believe something magical. Supernatural explanations are often more attractive to the human mind than rational explanations. 

Bigfoot, Loch Ness monster, mermaids, unicorns,  alien abductions… these are things that many assume are real because we naturally /want/ them to be real. It would be wonderful if they were real! We tend to believe what we would like to be true e.g. the afterlife.  But some people are more inclined than others towards supernatural explanations and tests show that these people tend to be more prone to influence by suggestion through hypnosis and generally more credulous. These people also tend to be more imaginative,  more likely to see ghosts, more creative, less sceptical.

But we are also influenced by our situation which will enhance this effect, especially in stressful situations. A person in a plane that is plummeting from 35,000 feet is more likely to be superstitious and ritualistic in their behaviour than normal. If in our lives there is a bereavement or a loss of control for some reason, people become more superstitious. It is an inclination swayed by context. When we are under pressure we don’t like to be stressed so we seek out control, and when we feel we have control we then feel in control of the situation,  either through rituals or processes of superstitious behaviours - we feel we  are controlling the situation, and that inoculates us against the unpleasant effects of stress. 

Humans generally hate uncertainty – especially in stressful situations. So someone with a magical and wonderful solution feeds our desire to believe and so we often believe things that are untrue. 

Psychic mediums – do they cause harm?  People who visit these people may get comfort and that is a benefit. The important thing is the intention of the person claiming to be psychic. Some psychics have good intentions and they genuinely believe what they are giving during a psychic reading (these are known as “shut eyes”). But the taking of money and scams of “open eye” psychics can be harmful. It is also arguable that the comfort gained from a psychic is a short term benefit, but would be longer term from a professional, trained counsellor. 

Coincidence lies at the heart of many of belief systems and there's generally a misunderstanding of what a coincidence is. We all believe we are very different but we are actually the same animal whichever culture we live in. We are far more predictable than we think and this is the key to success of mediums, astrologers etc. who can come up with a general statement that we feel is personal to us. 

Is belief in the paranormal growing? This has been tested over the last 50 years and it seems to be constant – not growing or receding. One third of people claim to have experienced ESP, telepathy, ghosts and so on and this level seems stable.

Does it matter if so many people have these beliefs? A lot of artists, musicians and creative people in general have these beliefs – so it can be argued our culture would be a lot poorer without them. They also played a part in our evolutionary history - it's possible we'd be extinct without them!  Supernatural beliefs are only a problem if the belief affects peoples’ wellbeing. 

What does physics have to say about ghosts? It says ghosts don’t exist because they are perpetual motion machines and hence violate the laws of thermodynamics.